Statistics are almost limitless in both Football and Baseball.
But Football quite often, is a gut game…
Tom Brady had great statistics and records at Michigan but was held from the QB job until Drew Bledsoe got injured—now he’s demonstrating he’s Hall of Fame material.
The strongest statistical variable predicting game wins in football is turn-over ratio. But that’s it.
Baseball, however, is a game of statistics. And, a game of attribution. Famous baseball statistician Bill James found the strongest indicator of scoring runs in a game is whether the leadoff hitter gets on base.
In Baseball, the leadoff hitter can start the best statistical predictor of success—originating opportunity to score.
Now what does this have to do with online media attribution (by media attribution, we mean which online media sources contribute to a transaction)? A lot.
Similar to Baseball stats, when a smart online advertiser embraces a robust media attribution system (disclosure…I’m CEO of C3 Metrics), they measure what we call “origination” of a sale.
This concept of attributing credit to online media sources who originate revenue is quite new. Even though America spends $30 billion a year advertising online…the industry is stuck in decade-old measurement systems.
Sadly, most of today’s Internet measurement systems give 100% transaction credit to the last clicked ad, or last viewed ad before the transaction.
What this means, is that these outdated measurement systems give ZERO credit to online media sources originating revenue.
So if four Internet ads contribute to a transaction, today’s outdated systems allocate entire credit to the fourth, last ad–ignoring the first three, which actually seeded the revenue.
But full funnel media attribution systems like C3 Metrics work differently.
Media attribution recognizes credit should be assigned to a team of internet ads…and perhaps stronger credit should be given to the one who originated the transaction—because without originating revenue, how can you even have revenue?
So in the world of Baseball, and in the world of online media attribution—the leadoff hitter/originator is pretty darn important.
But what about the rest of the players…do they get credit with media attribution?
Just as in baseball where some players strike out, get RBI’s, or get two-run homers–some get credit and some don’t. In attribution systems like C3 Metrics, the revenue gets credited to three fundamental players: Originators, Assists, and Converters.
All online media sources are captured in C3 Metrics from the top of the funnel where sales are originated to the very bottom of the funnel. So for a $100 transaction, an Originator would get a fraction of that $100 attributed to them—and the Assist and Converter would get their respective fractional credit of $100 attributed to them. 100% of the revenue attributed into three parts.
We know that leadoff hitters getting on-base produces the largest impact on scoring runs (less runs are scored without them). And with media attribution, we know that Originators produce the largest impact on scoring revenue (no revenue without originators).
Baseball, Football and media attribution—one of these things is not like the other, and one of these things is like the other.