Will Amazon Become the Next Fox?

20 years ago, Fox put itself on the map by outbidding CBS for TV rights to the NFC.

Eyes rolled, analysts said it was irresponsible, and everyone scratched their head.

Was Fox crazy?

Turns out Fox was crazy…like a Fox.

Football became the appointment TV platform that created viewership for Fox’s Sunday night line-up of TV, and consequently Sunday night ratings offered opportunity for viewers to watch a lot more Fox.

Football put Fox on the map.

Now comes Amazon, paying $50 million for the rights to stream Thursday night football.

10 games. 10 spots per game (slots given to local linear TV). That’s $500k per ad for Amazon to break even.

But they could drive more Amazon prime subscriptions, and factor that into the equation.

For advertisers: it’s a $2.8 million ad package, but unclear as to how many ads they get, or the value-ad throughout the Amazon site.

Let’s say Amazon wants to make half their money back, that reduces the spot cost to $250k per spot, which gives an advertiser 11 total spots for the season.

@ $250k per spot, @ a $100 cpm, the audience would have to be 2.5 million viewers.

Yahoo, last season, got into a viewership kerfuffle by putting an NFL game on its home page, but according to the Wall Street Journal, averaged 2.4 million viewers on its first stream.

For $100 CPM, is that premium worth it?

It all comes to “what else is in the ad package?”

Measurement?

Analytics?

Retargeting pixels for advertisers who’s prospects visit a landing page on Amazon (can’t do that in linear TV)?

Amazon, relatively new to the advertising business, has been inconsistent in its approach to Ad tech tracking. “Half the time, Amazon will let in third party measurement firms to track advertising ROI, and half the time they don’t. It’s inconsistent, and no one seems to know what the plan is,” said Jeff Greenfield, Co-Founder of advanced advertising attribution measurement firm C3 Metrics. “For Amazon to get the premium money they’re looking for in football, they’re going to give more to advertisers, and that will have to embrace third party research firms.”

Bezos has often been called crazy.

If played right, he could become Fox.